A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
